Global cereal production could reach 3.24 billion tonnes a year by 2035, as higher crop yields allow farmers to increase output without a comparable expansion in cultivated land, according to the latest long-term projections from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

The projection, published in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035, covers wheat, maize, other coarse grains and rice measured on a milled basis. Rather than forecasting a specific harvest based on current weather conditions, the Outlook provides a ten-year baseline for how agricultural markets could develop under its economic, demographic, policy and productivity assumptions.

The scale of the projected harvest reflects a world expected to need more cereals for food and animal feed while having relatively little additional farmland available. The central assumption is that much of the extra production will come from farmers producing more from each hectare.

Global cereal yields are projected to increase by around 0.9% a year over the coming decade, reaching an average of 4.2 tonnes per hectare by 2035. The OECD and FAO attribute those gains to continued improvements in crop genetics, farm management and the efficiency with which agricultural inputs are used.

By comparison, the global harvested area devoted to cereals is expected to expand by only around 0.1% annually. The Outlook projects an increase of roughly 15 million hectares over the base period, bringing total harvested cereal area to approximately 763 million hectares by 2035.

That represents a significant change in the source of production growth. During the previous decade, harvested cereal area expanded by about 0.5% a year. Going forward, urbanisation, environmental policies and limits on suitable agricultural land are expected to constrain further expansion, placing greater importance on productivity.

Wheat and maize acreage is still projected to increase modestly. Global wheat area is expected to rise by around 2% from the 2023 to 2025 base period, while maize area grows by roughly 4%. Rice and other coarse-grain areas are expected to remain broadly stable.

Maize is expected to account for the largest share of global cereal production by the end of the Outlook period.

Worldwide maize production is expected to grow by around 171 million tonnes, reaching approximately 1.43 billion tonnes in 2035. Brazil, China and the United States are expected to record the biggest increases in production from the base period. Brazil is projected to grow particularly quickly as maize grown as a second crop continues to be integrated with soybean rotations.

Global wheat production is forecast to increase by around 74 million tonnes to 877 million tonnes. India alone is expected to account for 29% of the projected worldwide increase, supported by higher yields and a modest expansion in harvested area. Russia, Argentina and Pakistan together are projected to account for another 40% of the increase.

Rice production, measured on a milled basis in the Outlook, is projected to reach 601 million tonnes by 2035, about 50 million tonnes above the base-period level. India is expected to make up more than half of the increase in global rice production, while additional growth is projected across other parts of Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

Other coarse grain production, including barley, sorghum, millet, oats and rye, is projected to rise by around 35 million tonnes to 331 million tonnes. African countries are expected to generate roughly half of that increase, reflecting the significance of these crops in regional food markets and their suitability for some areas with limited rainfall.

Together, those individual commodity projections amount to approximately 3.24 billion tonnes of cereal production in 2035.

The expansion will not be evenly distributed.

The OECD and FAO project cereal output in low-income and lower-middle-income countries to increase at about twice the rate expected in upper-middle-income and high-income economies. The report links that difference partly to lower starting yields, which leave greater scope for productivity improvements, along with investment intended to strengthen domestic agricultural production.

Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to record comparatively strong cereal production growth as technology improves, infrastructure expands and cropping systems become more intensive. The region is also one of the places where harvested area is expected to increase.

Africa is projected to see substantial production gains as agriculture becomes more commercialised, yields improve and cultivated areas continue expanding in some countries. Yet the Outlook does not expect global yield differences to disappear. Access to technology, inputs, financing and agricultural knowledge remains uneven, while infrastructure and exposure to extreme weather continue to constrain productivity in some lower-yield regions.

In North America, production growth is expected to come mainly from yield improvements rather than significantly more harvested land. Europe is also projected to rely primarily on moderate productivity gains as sustainability policies and land constraints keep cereal acreage broadly stable.

Rising production is expected to accompany an expansion in global cereal demand.

Total cereal use is projected to rise 12% from the 2023 to 2025 base period, reaching about 3.25 billion tonnes by 2035. Asian countries are expected to account for more than half of the increase in global consumption.

Around 40% of cereals are projected to be consumed directly as food by 2035, while approximately 34% will be used as animal feed. The remainder will go to biofuels and other industrial uses. Wheat and rice will remain predominantly food crops, while maize and other coarse grains will continue to have a larger role in feeding livestock.

The distinction matters because cereal demand is driven by more than population growth. Expanding livestock industries, changing diets, industrial processing and biofuel markets all compete for grain supplies.

Maize illustrates that dynamic. Global maize feed use alone is projected to reach 747 million tonnes by 2035, an increase of about 103 million tonnes from the base period. Feed demand is expected to grow particularly in Asia as livestock production expands, although improvements in feed efficiency are expected to moderate growth in some markets.

Producing more grain globally does not mean every region will produce enough for its own needs.

International cereal trade currently represents around 17% of global production under the Outlook's base-period measures. That share is projected to increase to 18% by 2035 as consumption in some import-dependent regions grows faster than domestic production.

The Americas and parts of Europe are expected to remain major suppliers of wheat, maize and other coarse grains, while Asian countries continue to dominate rice exports.

Global wheat exports are projected to reach about 235 million tonnes by 2035, while maize exports rise to roughly 218 million tonnes. Rice trade is expected to grow more quickly, reaching about 81 million tonnes, with India projected to remain the world's largest rice exporter.

Africa is expected to become increasingly important on the import side of the rice market. The region's share of global rice imports is projected to increase from around 35% during the base period to 45% by 2035 as consumption grows more rapidly than domestic output.

The 3.24 billion-tonne figure is a projection rather than an estimate of a harvest that has already occurred.

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook uses the organisations' Aglink-Cosimo model, a partial-equilibrium model designed to simulate annual supply, demand, trade and prices across major agricultural commodity markets. Historical data are drawn mainly from OECD and FAO databases based largely on national statistical sources, while national governments, commodity specialists and other experts contribute to the projection process.

The report uses the 2023 to 2025 average as its base period and assesses market developments through 2035. Population assumptions come from the medium variant of the United Nations population projections, while economic assumptions draw on sources including the OECD, International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Oxford Economics.

That methodology differs from FAO's short-term harvest forecasts. In its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, released on July 3, FAO forecast 2026 global cereal production at 2.983 billion tonnes, down 1.9% from the record 2025 harvest but still the second-highest level on record. That figure is a near-term assessment based on current crop prospects, while the 2035 Outlook figure represents a medium-term baseline under a broader set of assumptions, so the two should not be treated as directly equivalent forecasts.

The Outlook's baseline depends heavily on continued productivity growth, but agricultural production remains exposed to forces that can quickly change yields and costs.

Weather is among the most pressing uncertainties. The baseline generally assumes production develops along established trends, meaning severe droughts, floods or other departures from typical conditions could produce substantially different harvests.

Energy and fertiliser markets are another risk. Oil, natural gas, transport and fertiliser costs affect the economics of growing and moving grain, making geopolitical disruptions capable of influencing both farm production and international trade. The OECD and FAO specifically highlight uncertainty around energy and fertiliser prices in 2026 as a factor that could produce outcomes different from the baseline.

Trade policies, biofuel rules, sustainability measures and agricultural policies in major producing and consuming countries might also change how much grain is grown, traded and used.

The 2035 projection therefore does not imply a straight or guaranteed path toward 3.24 billion tonnes. It describes what global cereal agriculture could produce if productivity continues improving broadly in line with the Outlook's assumptions.

What stands out is where that additional grain is expected to come from. With global cereal acreage projected to grow only marginally, producing 3.24 billion tonnes a year by 2035 will depend primarily on extracting more output from each hectare already being farmed.