California’s almond industry opened its new crop year with a sharp increase in shipments. California almond handlers reported 190.1 million pounds of total shipments in August 2026, according to the Almond Board of California. The figure, rounded to 190 million pounds in the headline, was about 20.5 percent higher than the 157.8 million pounds shipped in August 2025.

August is particularly important in the Almond Board’s reporting calendar. Its crop year runs from August 1 through July 31, making August the first reporting month of the 2026–2027 crop year. The monthly position reports track almond trade activity and provide the industry’s regular measure of handler shipments, crop receipts, inventory and commitments.

The 190.1 million-pound figure is a shipment measure, not an estimate of almond production or the value of almond sales.

Almond Board position reports record shipments by handlers in kernel-weight pounds. The reporting framework separates domestic and export shipments and also tracks other measures such as crop receipts and commitments. These figures describe different stages of the almond supply chain and should not be treated as interchangeable. The reports identify ABC Form 25 as the source for the handler shipment data.

That distinction matters because a pound of almonds can appear in industry statistics at several different points. Crop receipts measure almonds received from the new harvest, commitments represent product sold but not yet delivered, while shipments measure product that handlers have actually shipped.

The most striking feature of August was the difference between domestic and export activity.

Export shipments reached 143.25 million pounds, while domestic shipments totaled 46.84 million pounds, according to the Almond Board. Exports therefore accounted for about 75 percent of total August shipments.

A year earlier, August 2025 export shipments were 109.35 million pounds and domestic shipments were 48.45 million pounds. On that basis, exports increased by roughly 31 percent year over year, while domestic shipments fell by about 3.3 percent. The overall 20.5 percent increase in shipments was therefore driven by overseas markets rather than stronger domestic volume.

The contrast is significant for an industry whose monthly shipment totals are heavily influenced by international trade. A strong export month can lift overall handler shipments even when movement within the United States weakens.

The shipment increase did not mean every measure of commercial activity was stronger.

The Almond Board reported 497.44 million pounds of total commitments, defined as almonds that had been sold but not yet delivered. That was below the 526.66 million pounds reported at the same point a year earlier, a decline of roughly 5.5 percent.

Shipments and commitments measure different things. August shipments show product that moved during the month, while commitments represent outstanding business expected to be delivered later. The combination of higher current shipments and somewhat lower commitments therefore describes a market that moved more product immediately but entered the new crop year with a smaller outstanding book than it had one year earlier.

Another large year-over-year increase appeared in crop receipts.

California handlers had received 401.85 million pounds of the 2026 crop by the end of August, compared with about 259.03 million pounds at the same stage of the previous crop year. That represents an increase of roughly 55 percent.

The increase should not be interpreted as evidence that the final 2026 almond crop will be 55 percent larger. Crop receipts are cumulative deliveries received by handlers at a particular point in the harvest, so their timing can have a major effect on early-season comparisons.

Industry reports published after the August position report said the 2026 harvest began earlier than normal, accelerating the arrival of almonds at handlers. OFI reported that the early harvest was a major reason August receipts were substantially ahead of the previous year, while Select Harvest USA similarly pointed to an unusually fast start to harvest.

That makes the receipt figure useful for measuring the pace at which the crop entered the supply chain, but not for determining final production.

The separate question of how many almonds California will ultimately produce is measured through USDA production statistics rather than the Almond Board’s monthly shipment totals.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service forecast 2026 California almond production at 2.70 billion pounds on a shelled basis. That was about 1 percent below the 2.715 billion pounds recorded for 2025. USDA also forecast 1.39 million bearing acres, down from 1.40 million acres, with average yield unchanged at 1,940 pounds per acre.

The production number is a forecast, not a final harvest result. USDA said its May 1 forecast was based on a subjective survey of around 500 almond growers conducted from April 21 through May 6. The agency used a stratified random sample grouped by farm size and asked growers to report acreage and expected production.

The forecasting process also changed for 2026. The Almond Board voted in late 2025 to end its funding for USDA’s separate July Objective Measurement Report, while continuing the annual Subjective Forecast. As a result, the May survey forecast remains an especially important official reference for the 2026 crop.

August provided a strong opening shipment number for California almonds. Total shipments rose to 190.1 million pounds from 157.8 million pounds a year earlier, with export growth more than offsetting weaker domestic movement.

But the different measures tell a more nuanced story. Shipments were higher, commitments were lower, and crop receipts surged partly because the harvest moved into the supply chain earlier. USDA, meanwhile, forecast a 2026 crop that was slightly smaller than the previous year rather than dramatically larger.

Taken together, the data show an industry that began the 2026–2027 crop year with faster physical movement and particularly strong export shipments, while the final size of the new crop remains a separate production question that cannot be determined from one month of shipment or receipt data alone.