Texas is on course for a notable change in its electricity mix. For the first time, utility-scale solar could generate more electricity over a full year than coal across the power grid serving most of the state.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts 75.7 billion kilowatthours of solar generation in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas region in 2026, compared with 58.2 billion kilowatthours from coal. If the forecast is realized, solar would produce about 30% more electricity than coal during the year.

The comparison applies specifically to ERCOT rather than every power plant in Texas. ERCOT manages electricity for more than 27 million customers and about 90% of the state’s electric load, making it a close representation of the main Texas power market but not a complete statewide measure.

The expected crossover follows several years of rapid growth in solar generation.

EIA data show that utility-scale solar generated 57.1 billion kilowatthours in ERCOT in 2025, while coal generated 62.2 billion kilowatthours. Solar therefore remained slightly behind coal on an annual basis last year.

For 2026, EIA expects solar generation to rise by roughly 33%, while coal generation falls by about 6%, based on the agency’s annual figures. Solar would consequently account for approximately 15% of ERCOT electric power sector generation, compared with about 12% for coal.

The figures come from EIA’s August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on August 11 after modeling was completed on August 6. Historical information in the regional generation table comes from EIA databases supporting the Electric Power Monthly and Electric Power Annual, while forecast values are produced through EIA’s Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.

Importantly, EIA’s solar figure covers utility-scale photovoltaic and solar thermal plants. It does not include electricity generated by small-scale systems such as rooftop solar. The agency defines the electric power sector in this table as utility-scale plants with more than 1 megawatt of capacity operated by utilities and independent power producers.

The annual crossover has been developing for some time. EIA reported that solar first generated more electricity than coal in ERCOT during a single month in March 2025, when solar produced 4.33 billion kilowatthours against coal’s 4.16 billion kilowatthours. Solar remained ahead of coal for several subsequent months that year.

The longer-term change is even clearer. Between 2021 and 2025, solar’s share of electricity generation on the ERCOT grid increased from 4% to 12%, according to EIA, while coal’s share declined from 19% to 13%. Natural gas remained the largest source, averaging 44% of ERCOT generation across those five years.

The 2026 forecast does not suggest that solar is becoming Texas’s largest electricity source. EIA still expects natural gas to generate 203.7 billion kilowatthours in ERCOT this year and wind to generate 120.7 billion kilowatthours, both substantially more than solar.

Instead, the significance lies in solar moving ahead of a fuel that historically supplied a much larger portion of the Texas grid.

Much of solar’s growth comes from the continued construction of large generating projects.

Based on its Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory published earlier this year, EIA said developers planned to add 43.4 gigawatts of solar power capacity from large grid-connected projects across the United States in 2026. Texas represented about 40% of those planned additions, the largest share of any state. The inventory reflects projects reported by developers and operators, so planned capacity should not be treated as capacity that has already entered service.

Among the projects identified by EIA was the 837-megawatt Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and BESS project in Texas, which the agency described as the biggest solar photovoltaic project expected to come online in the United States during 2026. The project also includes 418 megawatts of battery storage.

ERCOT’s own interconnection data underline the scale of developer interest. As of May 31, 2026, the grid operator was tracking 163 gigawatts of solar projects among its active generation interconnection requests. An interconnection request is not the same as a committed project, however, and many projects in such queues are never constructed.

Coal’s position in ERCOT has been gradually shrinking rather than disappearing.

EIA’s August forecast puts coal generation at 58.2 billion kilowatthours in 2026, down from 62.2 billion in 2025. The agency also said earlier this year that its generator inventory showed no new coal plants planned in ERCOT.

Solar and coal also have different operating characteristics. Coal plants can generate electricity around the clock when available, while solar production varies with daylight and weather. Annual generation figures measure the amount of electricity produced over the year, not the ability of different resources to provide power at the same hours.

That distinction is increasingly important as Texas adds battery storage alongside solar. Storage can shift electricity from periods of high solar output to later hours, but batteries store previously generated electricity rather than creating a new primary source of energy.

EIA currently expects the difference between the two resources to become substantially larger next year.

Its August outlook forecasts 98.0 billion kilowatthours of solar generation in ERCOT in 2027, compared with 50.7 billion kilowatthours from coal. Solar would therefore generate nearly twice as much electricity as coal if those projections are realized.

Forecasts can change as electricity demand, fuel prices, weather, plant retirements and project completion schedules evolve. Still, the latest EIA data point to a clear shift in the generation mix of the grid serving most Texans.

Solar has not overtaken natural gas or wind in ERCOT, but 2026 could mark the first year it generates more electricity than coal.