Global Wheat Production

If you eat bread, pasta, noodles, pastries, or most breakfast cereals, you’re plugged into one of the biggest flows of biomass on Earth: the annual global wheat harvest.

Each year the world now produces roughly 800 million tonnes of wheat. In 2023, FAO estimates put global wheat production at about 799 million tonnes, led by China, India and Russia, which together account for just over 42% of the total. Wheat is grown on more land than any other food crop – about 221 million hectares in 2021 – and provides around 20% of the calories and protein in the human diet, more than any other single crop.

This article walks through how much wheat the world harvests each year, how that has changed over time, who grows it, and what risks and trends will shape wheat production over the coming decades.

1. Why wheat matters so much

A few numbers capture wheat’s importance:

• Share of diets: Wheat alone contributes about 18–20% of global dietary calories and a similar share of protein, with rice and maize making up most of the rest.

• Area planted: It is the most widely grown crop by area, with about 220–221 million hectares harvested in 2021.

• Population dependence: Roughly 35% of the world’s population relies on wheat as a staple food.

• Trade importance: World trade in wheat is greater than for any other crop.

Wheat’s appeal is not just calories. Gluten’s unique viscoelastic properties make wheat the backbone of industrial baking and processed foods, which is one reason demand keeps rising as countries urbanize and diets “westernize.”

Because wheat is both a staple food and a heavily traded commodity, annual changes in global production – a bumper crop in Russia, a heatwave in India, war in Ukraine – can quickly ripple through prices, trade flows and food security.

2. How much wheat the world harvests each year: long-run trends

2.1 From mid-1990s to today

FAO statistics collected via FAOSTAT and synthesized in international datasets show that global wheat production has risen steadily over recent decades. A convenient snapshot comes from FAO-based tables of world wheat output:

• In 1996, world wheat production was about 571 million tonnes.

• By 2010, it had climbed to about 641 million tonnes.

• In 2020, output reached roughly 757 million tonnes.

• In 2022, the world harvested a record 808.4 million tonnes of wheat.

• In 2023, production eased slightly to about 799 million tonnes.

Over roughly a quarter-century, global wheat output has grown by about 40%, corresponding to an average growth rate of a little over 1% per year – modest but powerful when compounded over decades.

2.2 Recent years and near-term forecasts

Recent USDA and International Grains Council (IGC) reports give a more detailed picture for the current marketing years:

• USDA’s Production, Supply and Distribution database puts 2023/24 world wheat production around 792–793 million tonnes, with a 10-year average of about 768 million tonnes.

• Several analyses and government outlooks place 2024/25 world wheat production around 800 million tonnes – a modest increase over 2023/24.

• By late 2025, USDA’s Wheat Market Outlook and related commentary raised the 2025/26 global wheat production forecast to roughly 838 million tonnes, about 5% above 2024/25.

These forecasts, if realized, would mark a third successive record or near-record global wheat crop.

2.3 A data snapshot: world wheat production over time

To see the trajectory clearly, here’s a simplified table combining FAO estimates (calendar years) with USDA marketing-year forecasts for recent seasons:

Table 1 – World wheat production, selected years
(million metric tonnes; mix of FAO calendar-year estimates and USDA marketing-year values)

Mt = million metric tonnes. “MY” indicates marketing year; FAO figures are calendar-year approximations.

The key message: we now live in a world where the wheat crop is approaching – and may soon regularly exceed – 830–840 million tonnes per year, barring major shocks.

3. Where wheat is grown: the geography of production

Wheat likes temperate climates with cool seasons, and it can tolerate drought and cold better than many crops. That’s why it stretches across:

• The North American Great Plains

• Europe’s breadbaskets (France, Germany, Poland, Ukraine)

• Russia and Kazakhstan’s steppe regions

• The Indo-Gangetic plain of India and Pakistan

• Parts of China’s north and central regions

• Dryland regions of Australia, North Africa, and the Middle East

3.1 Top wheat producers

FAO-based country statistics for 2022 (summarized by multiple data providers) highlight the major wheat producers:

Table 2 – Top 10 wheat-producing countries, 2022

These ten countries alone account for well over two-thirds of world wheat production.

By 2023, FAO data show that China, India and Russia together supplied about 42% of global wheat output – meaning that shocks in any one of these large producers can have worldwide implications.

Some notable patterns:

• China is the largest producer but consumes nearly all its wheat domestically; it is not a major net exporter.

• India is both a huge producer and consumer; export volumes fluctuate with domestic price and food security considerations. Recent years saw export restrictions after heat damage and high prices, followed by government expectations of record harvests in 2024–2025 (over 113–117 Mt).

• Russia is now the dominant wheat exporter, accounting for around a quarter to over a quarter of global wheat exports in recent seasons, shipping more than 55 million tonnes of wheat in 2023/24.

• Ukraine, while smaller than Russia, is a key exporter relative to its size; war, damaged infrastructure and reduced sowings cut production and exports sharply after 2022, with major implications for import-dependent countries in North Africa and the Middle East.

3.2 Producers vs. exporters vs. importers

Production and trade patterns don’t line up perfectly:

• The biggest producers (China, India) are not the biggest exporters.

• The major exporters (Russia, European Union, Canada, United States, Australia, Ukraine) serve import-dependent regions like North Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.

• The biggest importers in recent years have included Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey, Algeria and Nigeria, often sourcing predominantly from the Black Sea region (Russia, Ukraine) or the EU.

This means that world wheat production is not just about the total harvested tonnes, but where those tonnes are grown and how they move through ports, shipping lanes, and logistics systems.

4. Seasons, systems and how wheat is grown

4.1 Winter wheat vs spring wheat

There are two main seasonal types:

• Winter wheat: Sown in the autumn, goes dormant over winter, and is harvested in late spring or summer. Dominant in Europe, Russia, Ukraine, and much of the US.

• Spring wheat: Sown in spring and harvested in late summer or early autumn; common in colder or drier regions like parts of Canada, Kazakhstan and northern US.

Winter wheat often yields more because it uses moisture and light over a longer growing period, but it is sensitive to winterkill and spring frosts. Spring wheat provides flexibility in rotations and can escape certain winter risks.

4.2 From Green Revolution to genomics

Historically, major gains in global wheat production came from higher yields, not major increases in planted area:

• Semi-dwarf Green Revolution cultivars introduced in the mid-20th century dramatically boosted yields in Asia and elsewhere by preventing plants from lodging (falling over) under higher fertilizer and irrigation.

• Since then, breeding has targeted disease resistance, stress tolerance, and grain quality.

The complexity of the wheat genome – hexaploid and huge – slowed genetic progress for years, but that changed with the International Wheat Genome Sequencing Consortium, which published a fully annotated reference genome in 2018.

This has sped up:

• Marker-assisted selection for traits like drought tolerance or disease resistance

• Genomic selection, which uses genome-wide markers to predict performance

• New understanding of quality traits (protein content, gluten strength, micronutrients)

Together with improved agronomy (better fertilizer management, precision planting, integrated pest management), these advances underpin the ~1% per year growth in global yields.

5. What drives changes in global wheat output?

Each year’s global harvest is the net result of several interacting forces:

5.1 Yield trends and technology

Despite limited additional land, global wheat production keeps rising primarily because yield per hectare increases:

• FAO and other analyses indicate that overall cereal yields (including wheat) have continued to grow, though at a slower rate than in the Green Revolution decades.

• Recent research shows that wheat yields must keep rising by roughly 1–1.5% per year to meet projected demand, given population growth and shifts in diet. Some estimates suggest wheat production may need to grow 60% by 2050, relative to early-21st-century levels, to keep up.

But yield growth is uneven: high-yielding regions like Western Europe already operate near agronomic limits, while parts of South Asia and Africa still have large yield gaps that could be closed with better seed, inputs and management.

5.2 Weather and climate variability

Weather is the single biggest factor behind year-to-year swings in global wheat output:

• Heatwaves in India in 2022 sharply cut yields, triggering export bans and concerns over global supply.

• Drought and frost damage can reduce output in the US Plains, Russia, or Australia; conversely, favorable rainfall can produce record crops, as seen in some recent Australian seasons.

• The war in Ukraine has interacted with these weather shocks by disrupting planting and harvesting in key breadbasket regions.

Climate change adds a long-term trend on top of this variability:

• Rising temperatures increase the probability of extreme heat during flowering and grain filling, which can sharply reduce yields.

• A recent analysis in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment warns that rising temperatures will significantly worsen crop losses from pests; for wheat, pest-related losses could increase by nearly 50% under a 2°C warming scenario.

5.3 Input costs: fertilizer, fuel, and machinery

Higher input prices can encourage farmers to reduce fertilizer or other inputs, which can lower yields:

• Fertilizer prices spiked in 2021–2022 due to energy prices and supply issues, pressuring margins in developing countries.

• Mechanization (tractors, combines) and irrigation require fuel and capital; shocks to energy markets (for example, from war or sanctions) directly affect production costs.

While these factors don’t usually show up as dramatic one-year drops in global production, they influence which marginal lands are planted and how intensively they’re managed.

6. Trade, stocks, and the balancing act

How much wheat the world harvests each year matters, but so do stocks and trade – the buffer and plumbing of the system.

6.1 Stocks and consumption

USDA data and market analyses show that in recent years:

• Global wheat consumption has often been very close to, or slightly above, global production – for example, expected consumption in 2023/24 has been around 795–800 million tonnes in some forecasts, similar to output.

• As a result, ending stocks (the wheat left in storage at the end of a marketing year) have been trending gently downward, tightening the balance sheet even as production hits records.

High production years add to stocks and can suppress prices, while poor harvests or demand surges draw stocks down and lift prices.

6.2 Trade flows and Black Sea shocks

The Russia–Ukraine war showed how geopolitical shocks can affect wheat markets even when total global harvests stay relatively ample:

• Ukraine’s wheat production dropped roughly 40% in 2022 compared with previous records, as war, damaged irrigation, and reduced sowings took their toll.

• Russia temporarily withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023, sending wheat futures sharply higher on fears of reduced Ukrainian exports.

• Analyses by the World Bank and academic studies show that while prices spiked by ~40% in the immediate aftermath of the invasion, global seaborne wheat shipments ultimately adjusted, with other exporters (especially Russia, Australia, and the US) ramping up exports and prices later easing.

Russia’s position as the largest wheat exporter – at times accounting for 25–28% of global exports – amplified the importance of Black Sea logistics, sanctions, and policy decisions for global food security.

7. Climate change, pests and the future resilience of wheat harvests

Looking forward, climate and ecological changes are likely to be at least as important as technology and markets in shaping how much wheat the world can harvest each year.

7.1 Hotter, drier, more variable

Key risks include:

• Heat stress: Wheat is particularly sensitive to high temperatures during flowering and grain filling. Increased frequency of heatwaves in South Asia, the Mediterranean, and parts of North America could cause more frequent yield shortfalls.

• Drought: Many wheat regions are rainfed. Extended droughts – such as those periodically hitting the US Plains or parts of Australia and Kazakhstan – can reduce yields sharply.

• Pest and disease expansion: Warmer temperatures and global trade are expanding the range and pressure of pests and diseases. The Nature Reviews study mentioned earlier estimates large increases in pest-related losses for major staples, including wheat, under 2°C warming, and plant pathologists are increasingly concerned about rusts and other fungal diseases.

7.2 Pest losses and monoculture risks

The world’s heavy dependence on a small number of staple crops – rice, wheat, and maize provide more than 40–50% of global calories – creates systemic risk known as “multiple breadbasket failure”: if several primary production regions suffer shocks at once, global food supplies could fall sharply.

For wheat specifically:

• Uniform cropping over large areas (for example in parts of Kazakhstan or the US) can encourage pest outbreaks and disease spread.

• Current estimates suggest pests and diseases destroy around 40% of global crops across all staples, and this share is expected to rise without better management and diversification.

Researchers increasingly argue for:

• Greater varietal diversity within fields (mixes of cultivars)

• More crop rotation and intercropping

• Integrated pest management that relies less on broad-spectrum pesticides and more on ecological control methods

8. Policy, technology, and the future of global wheat production

How much wheat the world will harvest each year over the next few decades will depend as much on policy and economics as on biology.

8.1 National strategies in key producers

Large producers are already adjusting strategies:

• China has launched long-term plans to secure grain supply by 2035, targeting around 700 million tonnes of grain output by 2027 and explicitly emphasizing stable wheat production, technological innovation, and resilient rural development.

• India is pushing for record wheat harvests above 115–117 million tonnes, motivated by domestic food security and high procurement targets, even as heatwaves and moisture stress pose recurring risks.

• Russia continues to invest in export infrastructure and aims to maintain or increase its share of global wheat exports despite sanctions and logistical constraints.

• Ukraine is trying to restore and expand production after major war-related losses, including plans to increase winter wheat sowings for the 2026 harvest, though land loss and infrastructure damage remain serious constraints.

These strategies will shape how much of the future global wheat harvest is available for export versus domestic use.

8.2 Prices, markets and investment signals

Global wheat prices play a dual role:

• When prices are high, they encourage farmers to plant more and use more inputs, supporting higher production in subsequent years – but they also stress consumers and importing governments. For example, wheat prices hit record levels in 2022 amid drought and war, contributing to a record FAO Food Price Index.

• When prices are low due to record harvests and large export supplies, farmers can cut back on inputs and planting, risking under-investment in productivity improvements. Recent outlooks suggest record grains production (including wheat) may put downward pressure on prices in 2025–26, giving buyers the upper hand.

Stable, predictable policy environments – including transparent export rules, investment in storage and infrastructure, and support for R&D – can help smooth these cycles and sustain yield growth.

8.3 Innovation priorities

To keep global wheat production rising sustainably, several innovation fronts are crucial:

1. Breeding for resilience

   • Heat and drought tolerance

   • Resistance to evolving rust races and other diseases

   • Higher nutrient use efficiency (especially nitrogen)

   Genomic tools, including the reference wheat genome and high-throughput phenotyping, are making these goals more attainable.

2. Climate-smart agronomy

   • Conservation agriculture (reduced tillage, residue retention) to maintain soil moisture and carbon

   • Better water management, especially in irrigated systems

   • Precision input application to reduce waste and emissions

3. Diversification and dietary shifts

   • Encouraging greater crop diversity could reduce systemic risk from multiple breadbasket failures.

   • Some analysts argue that balancing wheat with underutilized crops (millets, sorghum, pulses) can improve resilience and nutrition, though this is a slow dietary and cultural shift.

4. Digital tools and AI

   • Weather-responsive planting advice

   • Early warning systems for pests and diseases

   • Better yield forecasting to inform trade and humanitarian planning

   Climate and pest studies are already calling for more advanced forecasting and AI-assisted pest management to reduce the rising losses expected under warming scenarios.

9. So, how much wheat will the world harvest each year?

Putting all these strands together:

• In the early 2000s, global wheat production hovered around 580–620 million tonnes per year.

• By the 2010s, it was commonly in the 650–750 million tonne range, with record years creeping higher.

• Since around 2020, the world has entered a new band of ~750–810 million tonnes, with 2022’s 808 million tonne crop and FAO’s 799 million tonne estimate for 2023 as milestones.

• USDA and IGC projections now see 800–840 million tonnes as typical for the mid-2020s, assuming no synchronized disasters, with 2025/26 forecasts clustering around 820–840 million tonnes.

In other words, we have entered an era where the “normal” global wheat harvest is around 800 million tonnes per year and slowly rising – but that “normal” is held together by a delicate balance of climate, geopolitics, trade, technology, and policy.

If climate change accelerates or multiple breadbasket failures occur, the world could see years where wheat harvests fall well below that level, with sharp consequences for prices and food security. Conversely, sustained investment in breeding, agronomy, and resilient trade infrastructure could push global wheat production comfortably beyond 850–900 million tonnes over the coming decades, even on roughly the same land area.

For now, the world’s bakers, noodle factories, and households are running on a wheat supply that is both larger than ever and more exposed than ever to systemic risks.