Global Cotton Production

Cotton is one of those “quiet giants” of the world economy: it rarely dominates headlines, yet it sits behind wardrobes, home textiles, medical supplies, and an enormous network of farms, gins, traders, spinners, and brands. When people ask “how much cotton does the world produce each year?”, they’re really asking about a moving target shaped by weather, water, technology, policy, and price—across dozens of producing countries and multiple growing systems (from rainfed smallholder plots to highly mechanized irrigated farms).

This article digs into the latest global production numbers, explains what those numbers actually mean, and explores where cotton is grown, why output rises and falls, and what trends matter most for the years ahead.

What “global cotton production” means (and why units can be confusing)

Before diving into the data, it helps to clarify a core point: cotton can be measured at different stages, and the totals change depending on what stage you’re counting.

• Seed cotton: raw cotton picked from the field (fiber + seed).

• Lint cotton: the fiber separated from the seed at the gin—this is the commodity traded internationally and the figure used in most global market reports.

• Cotton bales: a trade-friendly unit often used in the U.S. and in global balance sheets. In USDA reporting, a standard bale is 480 pounds (about 217.7 kg) of lint.

Most global “world production” figures used by commodity analysts and trade bodies refer to lint cotton, not seed cotton. The tables in this article primarily use USDA’s world cotton balance sheet, which tracks lint production on a marketing-year basis (season beginning August 1).

How much cotton does the world harvest each year?

In recent years, global lint cotton production has generally hovered in the low-to-mid 20 million metric ton range, with notable year-to-year swings depending on weather and economics.

To make the trend concrete, here is a decade-plus view of world cotton production using USDA’s world supply-and-distribution series (production in 1,000 480-lb bales, converted into million bales and million metric tons).

Table 1 — Global cotton lint production by season (USDA marketing year)

Source/notes: USDA Cotton: World Markets and Trade (January 2026). Production = lint; season begins Aug 1. Metric ton conversion uses 1 bale = 480 lb ≈ 217.7 kg.

What this trend is really saying

A few patterns jump out:

1. Cotton is cyclical. Output moves with prices, input costs, and growers’ alternatives (corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, pulses, etc.).

2. Weather shocks matter—fast. A bad monsoon, drought, flood, or pest year in a major producer can move global totals.

3. The “new normal” is not a straight line. Over the period above, global production oscillates roughly between ~21 Mt and ~26.5 Mt—large swings for a crop central to textile supply chains.

Where the cotton comes from: the world’s top producers

Cotton is grown in many countries, but a handful drive the global total. USDA’s January 2026 outlook provides a snapshot of production by major producers (in bales).

Table 2 — Cotton production by major producer (2025/26 forecast)

Source/notes: USDA Cotton: World Markets and Trade (January 2026), production table in 1,000 bales.

This table is a reminder that global cotton is not “one market”—it’s a mosaic of local realities. China and India together account for roughly half of world production, but the exportable surplus often comes from a different mix of countries (notably the U.S., Brazil, Australia, and parts of Africa), depending on the season.

A quick tour of the major producing regions

China: big producer, big consumer

China’s cotton story is as much about textile demand as it is about farming. It is consistently among the world’s top producers and also one of the largest mill-use centers, which means its net impact on world trade depends on the balance of domestic crop size, reserve policy, and mill demand.

Key forces:

• Regional concentration (notably Xinjiang)

• Policy management (stocks, procurement, import quotas)

• Productivity gains from mechanization in key regions

India: huge footprint, high variability

India is a cotton superpower in acreage and farm participation, but production can be volatile because much of the crop is rain-dependent and exposed to monsoon irregularities and pest pressure.

India’s cotton market has also shown how quickly domestic shortfalls can become global trade events. For example, Reuters reported expectations of rising imports in recent seasons amid lower output and weather disruptions, underlining India’s sensitivity to production shocks.

Key forces:

• Monsoon timing and distribution

• Pest management and seed quality

• Prices relative to competing crops (and farmer support mechanisms)

• Fragmented smallholder structure in many regions

Brazil: the export growth engine

Brazil’s cotton sector has gained attention for its scale, organization, and export growth, supported by large commercial farms, modern agronomy, and logistics investments. In many seasons, Brazil’s role is less about “big production” alone and more about how much surplus it can ship competitively.

Key forces:

• Large-scale mechanized farming

• Rotation systems (often with soy and corn)

• Strong export orientation and infrastructure

United States: highly mechanized, trade-linked

The U.S. crop is among the world’s most mechanized and is deeply linked to global trade flows. U.S. production swings—especially from major producing states—can influence world prices and import decisions elsewhere.

Australia: smaller share, outsized reliability

Australia is not the biggest producer by volume, but it’s frequently influential in trade because it tends to supply high-quality cotton and can be a stable exporter when conditions are favorable (though water availability remains central).

“Other producers”: Africa, Central Asia, and beyond

The “Other” category in Table 2 is not small—over 16 million bales in the 2025/26 outlook.
This includes:

• West and Central Africa (often export-oriented; sector livelihoods can be highly important)

• Central Asia (e.g., Uzbekistan and neighbors)

• Smaller producers across the Americas and Mediterranean

Why global cotton production rises and falls

Cotton output is shaped by two primary levers:

1. Area harvested (how many hectares farmers actually take to harvest), and

2. Yield (how much lint those hectares produce).

USDA’s long-run table includes both area and production, allowing a simple yield lens. For example, in the 2025/26 outlook, the world harvest area is about 29.5 million hectares, producing about 119.4 million bales—a lint yield on the order of ~880 kg/ha, higher than many seasons a decade earlier (e.g., ~690–800 kg/ha range in the mid-2010s).

The biggest drivers, in plain English

1) Weather and water

Cotton is grown in both rainfed and irrigated systems. Weather affects:

• planting windows,

• flowering and boll set,

• pest pressure,

• harvest quality and losses.

When rains arrive late, stop early, or come as storms at the wrong time, cotton can suffer not just yield loss but also quality downgrades that reduce the value of the crop.

2) Prices—and what farmers could grow instead

Cotton competes with other crops. If soybeans, corn, wheat, or pulses offer better returns (after input costs), farmers may shift land away from cotton. Conversely, strong cotton prices can pull land back.

3) Input costs and financing

Cotton can be input-intensive. Fertilizer, pesticides, diesel, labor, and irrigation costs can determine whether cotton is a “go” or “no” crop in a given season.

4) Technology and agronomy

Yield gains are often powered by:

• improved varieties and seed traits,

• better pest management,

• mechanization and better harvest efficiency,

• precision agriculture and irrigation management.

Long-run productivity trends are part of why outlook institutions project gradual growth over time. For instance, the OECD-FAO outlook projects global lint cotton production growth over the next decade, reaching about 28.1 million metric tons by 2032 (projection, not a guarantee).

5) Policy, trade, and stocks

Cotton is deeply influenced by:

• import/export policy,

• reserve and procurement programs,

• sustainability requirements and traceability rules evolving in major consumer markets.

Trade expectations can shift quickly. ICAC, for example, has noted changes in global cotton trade and expectations for subsequent seasons based on consumption and importing demand.

The “real” cotton supply chain: why production data matters beyond farms

Cotton is unusual because the crop’s impact extends across a long chain:

1. Farm (planting, growing, harvesting)

2. Gin (lint separated from seed; lint packed into bales)

3. Merchants/traders (aggregation, classification, shipping)

4. Spinning mills (lint to yarn)

5. Fabric formation (weaving/knitting)

6. Garment and home textile manufacturing

7. Brands and retail

USDA explicitly maps this progression in its cotton reporting materials, reinforcing that “production” is not just a farm statistic—it’s the front end of a global industrial pipeline.

Because the chain is long, even modest production shifts can ripple into:

• yarn prices,

• fabric costs,

• mill utilization,

• and, eventually, consumer pricing and product availability.

Cotton and sustainability: production growth isn’t the only story

Cotton sits at the center of sustainability debates because it intersects with:

• water use,

• pesticide use,

• soil health,

• labor conditions in parts of the chain,

• and land-use pressures.

One useful way to think about this is “more cotton from the same land.” A market report from IISD (drawing on FAO-linked production context) describes how cotton lint production grew over earlier periods and emphasizes the role of productivity and area dynamics, while also highlighting sustainability pressures around the crop.

At the global policy and development level, cotton is also framed as a livelihoods crop in many countries. UNIDO’s World Cotton Day reporting emphasizes the broad economic importance of cotton value chains in producing countries.

The upshot: future production growth is likely to be judged not only by volume, but by how that volume is achieved—especially in water-stressed regions and in markets where buyers demand stronger traceability.

What to watch next: the forces most likely to shape 2026 and beyond

Based on the structure of world production and trade data, a few “watch items” matter disproportionately:

1. China’s crop size vs. mill demand (a big swing factor for imports).

2. India’s monsoon outcomes and the resulting import needs (which can redirect global flows).

3. Brazil’s exportable surplus and logistics (increasingly central to world trade).

4. U.S. production variability in major regions (important for both total supply and quality mix).

5. Trade growth expectations and demand signals from major importing hubs.

Methodology and data notes (so the tables are easy to interpret)

• Primary dataset used for tables: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Cotton: World Markets and Trade (January 2026).

• Season definition: USDA world cotton season begins August 1 (marketing year).

• Units:

  • “Bales” in the USDA world tables refer to 480-lb bales.

  • Metric ton conversion uses 1 bale ≈ 217.7 kg.

• Why some tables show “Other”: USDA groups smaller producers into “Other” in summary tables, even though detailed country-by-country tables exist elsewhere in the report.

Bottom line

Global cotton production is large, cyclical, and concentrated—yet it’s also geographically diverse enough that the “rest of the world” still accounts for a meaningful share. The last decade-plus shows a world that repeatedly returns to a ~25–26 million metric ton output range, but with big year-to-year swings driven by weather, economics, and policy.